India’s upcoming general election in 2024 is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched political events in Asia, according to the latest report released on October 12, 2023. The report titled “Forecast of Political, Social and Electoral Risks Ahead of the 2024 Indian General Election” warns of intense political competition, social tensions and localized instability as India prepares for its largest-ever democratic exercise.
For East Asian and Southeast Asian observers, the stakes extend beyond India’s borders. The country’s political stability is crucial for regional trade, supply chains and strategic partnerships across the Indo-Pacific. The report notes that the election’s outcome could influence India’s economic policies, foreign relations and role in regional security, with implications for countries from Japan and South Korea to ASEAN nations.
The report—authored by Bahauddin Foizee, a risk, political and geopolitical analyst and columnist—highlights a major shift in India’s political landscape. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dominated national politics for over a decade, the emergence of the INDIA coalition, a unified alliance of the Congress Party and several influential regional parties, poses a significant challenge.
States such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal are expected to play decisive roles. The report emphasizes that local dynamics, caste considerations and historical rivalries could turn these regions into electoral battlegrounds, potentially shaping the national outcome.
Economic pressures are another key factor. Rising inflation, persistent unemployment and rural distress are, as the report suggests, affecting millions of voters, particularly young citizens demanding jobs and opportunities. According to the report, while the BJP is likely to campaign on infrastructure development and India’s growing global profile, these domestic realities may limit the party’s appeal in critical constituencies.
Social polarization adds another layer of complexity. The report warns that divisions based on religion, caste and regional identity are being amplified by social media and digital campaigning. Areas such as Manipur, where ethnic tensions remain unresolved, are identified as high-risk zones for electoral disruption. West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh are also cited as potential flashpoints for localized unrest, though the report stresses that nationwide instability is unlikely.
The report concludes that India’s 2024 election is more than a domestic contest. It is a test of the country’s democratic resilience and its ability to manage political, social and economic pressures simultaneously.
For East Asian and ASEAN audiences, the report underscores that transparent electoral processes, effective security measures and careful monitoring of key states will be critical to ensure the election strengthens India’s role in regional stability rather than undermining it.
Asia Pacific Newslog 